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Charlestown City Blues vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 05:00

Charlestown City Blues

PPG 0.78 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Maitland

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.7%0-27.7%0-35.9%0-4+5.7%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.5%1-37.3%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.3%2-15.2%2-25.9%2-34.5%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.9%3-12.1%3-22.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 25.0% 4.00 -3.6%

Draw 21.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.6%

Away win 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Over 2.5 64.3% 71.4% 1.40 -10.0%

Over 3.5 43.0% 50.8% 1.97 -15.3%

BTTS 61.8% 69.4% 1.44 -11.0%

Home O1.5 34.4% 41.2% 2.43 -16.4%

Away O1.5 65.0% 70.9% 1.41 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.8%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2✓ 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 2–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlestown City Blues1.2

Maitland2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLESTOWN CITY BLUES · PPG 0.78

MAITLAND · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.05 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlestown City Blues (H) 23.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.6%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.6%

Maitland (A) 55.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlestown City Blues face Maitland in Australia - NPL Northern NSW on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlestown City Blues a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Maitland 55%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Charlestown City Blues and 2.3 for Maitland (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlestown City Blues are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 2.00 for Maitland. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Charlestown City Blues vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - NPL Northern NSW

Match Preview & Prediction

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