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Barracas C. vs Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Apertura - 15 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 18:00

Barracas C.

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Belgrano

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 28.6% — a clear edge.

+99.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-18.1%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.3%1-111.3%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.5%2-17.9%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-13.7%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 28.6% 3.50 +99.2%

Draw 27.6% 33.6% 2.98 -17.8%

Away win 15.5% 44.6% 2.24 -65.3%

Over 2.5 31.8% 37.0% 2.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 13.9% 18.2% 5.50 -23.5%

BTTS 33.3% 46.5% 2.15 -28.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -39.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob33.3%

H 57% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.3%

#2 0–0✓ 13.8%

#3 2–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barracas C.1.4

Belgrano0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.8% · O3.5 PROB 13.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRACAS C. · PPG 1.67

BELGRANO · PPG 1.57

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Barracas C. (H) 56.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +99.2%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -17.8%

Belgrano (A) 15.5%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -65.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barracas C. face Belgrano in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barracas C. a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Belgrano 16%, so Barracas C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Barracas C. and 0.6 for Belgrano (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barracas C. are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.57 for Belgrano. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +99.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Barracas C. vs Belgrano Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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