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Blacktown City U20 vs UNSW U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Matchday 28 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 03:00

Blacktown City U20

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

UNSW U20

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.5%0-22.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.5%1-16.2%1-25.5%1-33.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.8%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.7%3-16.5%3-25.7%3-33.3%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-17.3%4+-26.4%4+-33.8%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 26.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.3%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.8%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City U202.5

UNSW U201.8

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY U20 · PPG 1.54

UNSW U20 · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City U20 (H) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UNSW U20 (A) 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City U20 face UNSW U20 in Australia - Npl Nsw U20 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City U20 a 52% chance, the draw 22% and UNSW U20 26%, so Blacktown City U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Blacktown City U20 and 1.8 for UNSW U20 (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City U20 are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.85 for UNSW U20.

Blacktown City U20 vs UNSW U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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