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St George Saints U20 vs APIA Leichhardt U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 06:30

St George Saints U20

PPG 0.62 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

APIA Leichhardt U20

PPG 2.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -2.14 for Away, form 0.62 vs 2.42

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-16.3%0-29.5%0-39.5%0-4+14.9%1 1-01.8%1-15.4%1-28.2%1-38.2%1-4+12.8%2 2-00.8%2-12.3%2-23.5%2-33.5%2-4+5.5%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.0%3-31.0%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 69.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 69.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 70% / xG 0.9-3.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.5%

#2 0–3 9.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 1–3 8.2%

#5 0–4 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George Saints U200.9

APIA Leichhardt U203.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE SAINTS U20 · PPG 0.62

APIA LEICHHARDT U20 · PPG 2.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.14 for Away, form 0.62 vs 2.42

Win probability 1X2

St George Saints U20 (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

APIA Leichhardt U20 (A) 69.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

St George Saints U20 face APIA Leichhardt U20 in Australia - Npl Nsw U20 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George Saints U20 a 14% chance, the draw 17% and APIA Leichhardt U20 70%, so APIA Leichhardt U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for St George Saints U20 and 3.0 for APIA Leichhardt U20 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George Saints U20 are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 2.42 for APIA Leichhardt U20. This match finished 4-1.

St George Saints U20 vs APIA Leichhardt U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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