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UNSW U20 vs Sydney Olympic U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 03:15

UNSW U20

PPG 1.46 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sydney Olympic U20

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.3%0-20.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.3%1-14.3%1-22.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.5%2-17.1%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.1%3-17.8%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-114.9%4+-29.6%4+-34.1%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.6% 80.0% 1.25 -16.8%

Draw 16.6% 20.0% 5.00 -10.2%

Away win 16.8% 11.8% 8.50 +25.7%

Over 2.5 74.4% 82.0% 1.22 -9.2%

Over 3.5 54.1% 68.0% 1.47 -20.5%

BTTS 64.3% 71.4% 1.40 -10.0%

Home O1.5 78.3% 83.3% 1.20 -6.0%

Away O1.5 36.2% 35.7% 2.80 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.3%

H 67% / xG 3.3-1.3 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1✓ 7.1%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 3–0 6.1%

#5 2–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW U203.3

Sydney Olympic U201.3

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW U20 · PPG 1.46

SYDNEY OLYMPIC U20 · PPG 0.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.00 for Home, form 1.46 vs 0.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UNSW U20 (H) 66.6%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -16.8%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -10.2%

Sydney Olympic U20 (A) 16.8%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +25.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW U20 face Sydney Olympic U20 in Australia - Npl Nsw U20 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW U20 a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Sydney Olympic U20 17%, so UNSW U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for UNSW U20 and 1.3 for Sydney Olympic U20 (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW U20 are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 0.14 for Sydney Olympic U20. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 2-1.

UNSW U20 vs Sydney Olympic U20 Prediction— Australia - Npl Nsw U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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