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Mixco vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 17:00

Mixco

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Marquense

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-12.9%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.4%1-17.0%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-17.0%3-22.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-17.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.2% 69.4% 1.44 -3.2%

Draw 22.3% 26.7% 3.75 -9.8%

Away win 10.5% 13.9% 7.20 -14.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 51.3% 1.95 +4.3%

Over 3.5 33.4% 29.9% 3.35 +11.9%

BTTS 48.4% 48.8% 2.05 -0.8%

Home O1.5 62.5% 60.6% 1.65 +3.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 11.4%

#3 1–0✓ 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mixco2.5

Marquense0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MIXCO · PPG 2.29

MARQUENSE · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.83 for Home, form 2.29 vs 0.58 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Mixco (H) 67.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -3.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.8%

Marquense (A) 10.5%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mixco face Marquense in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mixco a 67% chance, the draw 22% and Marquense 11%, so Mixco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Mixco and 0.6 for Marquense (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mixco are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.58 for Marquense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Mixco vs Marquense Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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