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Xelajú vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 2 ·Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 02:00

Xelajú

PPG 1.98 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Aurora

PPG 0.96 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-17.7%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.5%1-111.6%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.8%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.3%3-14.4%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 76.9% 1.30 -30.8%

Draw 25.9% 21.7% 4.60 +11.5%

Away win 20.9% 10.8% 9.25 +56.0%

Over 2.5 45.9% 56.5% 1.77 -18.8%

Over 3.5 26.6% 33.9% 2.95 -12.9%

BTTS 48.4% 46.5% 2.15 +4.1%

Home O1.5 45.4% 69.0% 1.45 -34.2%

Away O1.5 17.4% 17.4% 5.75 +0.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.5%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Xelajú1.5

Aurora0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

XELAJÚ · PPG 1.98

AURORA · PPG 0.96

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Xelajú (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -30.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +11.5%

Aurora (A) 20.9%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +56.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Xelajú face Aurora in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Tuesday, August 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Xelajú a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Aurora 21%, so Xelajú are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Xelajú and 0.7 for Aurora (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Xelajú are averaging 1.98 points per game versus 0.96 for Aurora. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +62.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Xelajú vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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