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Aurora vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 21:00

Aurora

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Comunicaciones

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-19.8%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-112.3%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-17.7%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 33.3% 3.00 +50.9%

Draw 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 21.9% 43.5% 2.30 -29.8%

Over 2.5 38.2% 40.8% 2.45 -6.4%

Over 3.5 21.7% 22.2% 4.50 -1.4%

BTTS 46.8% 50.0% 2.00 -6.4%

Home O1.5 35.5% 30.8% 3.25 +15.4%

Away O1.5 17.4% 38.5% 2.60 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.8%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aurora1.3

Comunicaciones0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AURORA · PPG 1.33

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Aurora (H) 50.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +50.9%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Comunicaciones (A) 21.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -29.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aurora face Comunicaciones in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aurora a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Comunicaciones 22%, so Aurora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Aurora and 0.7 for Comunicaciones (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aurora are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.93 for Comunicaciones. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Aurora vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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