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Marquense vs Municipal Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 00:00

Marquense

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Municipal

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-112.0%0-27.9%0-33.4%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.3%2-17.0%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 39.9% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 32.6% — — —

Away O1.5 41.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 40% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–2✓ 8.5%

#5 1–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marquense1.1

Municipal1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MARQUENSE · PPG 1.80

MUNICIPAL · PPG 1.51

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.23, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Marquense (H) 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Municipal (A) 39.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Marquense face Municipal in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marquense a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Municipal 40%, so Municipal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Marquense and 1.3 for Municipal (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marquense are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.51 for Municipal. This match finished 1-2.

Marquense vs Municipal Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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