Today / Norway - Toppserien / Lyn W vs Fortuna Ålesund W

Lyn W vs Fortuna Ålesund W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Matchday 12 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 10:00

Lyn W logo
Lyn W
PPG 1.80 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Fortuna Ålesund W logo
Fortuna Ålesund W
PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-16.5%0-24.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.1%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.2%3-14.8%3-23.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 42.8%
Draw 23.0%
Away win 34.2%
Over 2.5 63.1%
Over 3.5 38.8%
BTTS 61.6%
Home O1.5 47.2%
Away O1.5 47.3%

League track record

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%
O2.5 58%
BTTS 54%
Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.6%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%
#2 2–1 8.7%
#3 1–2 8.0%
#4 2–2 6.6%
#5 0–0 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lyn W1.6
Fortuna Ålesund W1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LYN W · PPG 1.80

FORTUNA ÅLESUND W · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lyn W (H) 42.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Fortuna Ålesund W (A) 34.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lyn W face Fortuna Ålesund W in Norway - Toppserien on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lyn W a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Fortuna Ålesund W 34%, so Lyn W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Lyn W and 1.5 for Fortuna Ålesund W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lyn W are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.40 for Fortuna Ålesund W.

PredictVantage

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