Today / Norway - Toppserien / Bodø / Glimt W vs Vålerenga W

Bodø / Glimt W vs Vålerenga W Prediction— Norway - Toppserien

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 16:00

Bodø / Glimt W logo
Bodø / Glimt W
PPG 0.20 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Vålerenga W logo
Vålerenga W
PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -3.38 for Away, form 0.20 vs 1.40

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-13.3%0-26.7%0-39.2%0-4+28.4%1 1-00.6%1-12.4%1-24.9%1-36.7%1-4+20.7%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-21.8%2-32.4%2-4+7.5%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 12.7%
Draw 16.1%
Away win 71.2%
Over 2.5 75.7%
Over 3.5 54.6%
BTTS 54.0%
Home O1.5 30.2%
Away O1.5 86.7%

League track record

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%
O2.5 58%
BTTS 54%
Score Hit 27%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)0.7 xG (away)4.1 BTTS prob54.0%

A 71% / xG 0.7-4.1 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 9.4%
#2 0–3 9.2%
#3 0–5 7.7%
#4 1–4 6.9%
#5 0–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bodø / Glimt W0.7
Vålerenga W4.1

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BODØ / GLIMT W · PPG 0.20

VÅLERENGA W · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -3.38 for Away, form 0.20 vs 1.40

Win probability 1X2

Bodø / Glimt W (H) 12.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 16.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Vålerenga W (A) 71.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bodø / Glimt W face Vålerenga W in Norway - Toppserien on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bodø / Glimt W a 13% chance, the draw 16% and Vålerenga W 71%, so Vålerenga W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bodø / Glimt W and 4.1 for Vålerenga W (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bodø / Glimt W are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Vålerenga W.

PredictVantage

Free daily football predictions across 240+ leagues. A Poisson-based model analyses team form, attack and defence strength, and live bookmaker odds to surface value bets — updated every day, graded every night.

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