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Khan Tengri vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 05:00

Khan Tengri

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arys

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.4%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.9%1-19.3%1-25.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.9%3-16.9%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 59.8% — — —

Away O1.5 34.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Khan Tengri2.1

Arys1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KHAN TENGRI · PPG 1.44

ARYS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Khan Tengri (H) 53.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arys (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Khan Tengri face Arys in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Khan Tengri a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Arys 24%, so Khan Tengri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Khan Tengri and 1.2 for Arys (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Khan Tengri are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.50 for Arys.

Khan Tengri vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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