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Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Yelimay Semey 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 13:00

Kaspij Aktau 2

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yelimay Semey 2

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.7%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-19.5%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.6%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.6%3-16.4%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% — — —

Draw 21.3% — — —

Away win 14.7% — — —

Over 2.5 55.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 81%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob53.1%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 9.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kaspij Aktau 22.0

Yelimay Semey 20.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KASPIJ AKTAU 2 · PPG 1.86

YELIMAY SEMEY 2 · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kaspij Aktau 2 (H) 64.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yelimay Semey 2 (A) 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kaspij Aktau 2 face Yelimay Semey 2 in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kaspij Aktau 2 a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Yelimay Semey 2 15%, so Kaspij Aktau 2 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kaspij Aktau 2 and 0.7 for Yelimay Semey 2 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kaspij Aktau 2 are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.56 for Yelimay Semey 2.

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Yelimay Semey 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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