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Aktobe Jas vs Shakhter Karagandy Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 13:00

Aktobe Jas

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shakhter Karagandy

PPG 2.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -2.05 for Away, form 1.62 vs 2.44

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-17.2%0-210.3%0-39.8%0-4+14.3%1 1-02.0%1-15.9%1-28.4%1-38.1%1-4+11.7%2 2-00.8%2-12.4%2-23.5%2-33.3%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-20.9%3-30.9%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 69.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 69.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 81%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob54.5%

A 70% / xG 0.8-2.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.3%

#2 0–3 9.8%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 1–3 8.1%

#5 0–4 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aktobe Jas0.8

Shakhter Karagandy2.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AKTOBE JAS · PPG 1.62

SHAKHTER KARAGANDY · PPG 2.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.05 for Away, form 1.62 vs 2.44

Win probability 1X2

Aktobe Jas (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shakhter Karagandy (A) 69.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aktobe Jas face Shakhter Karagandy in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aktobe Jas a 14% chance, the draw 17% and Shakhter Karagandy 70%, so Shakhter Karagandy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Aktobe Jas and 2.9 for Shakhter Karagandy (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aktobe Jas are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.44 for Shakhter Karagandy.

Aktobe Jas vs Shakhter Karagandy Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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