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Ekibastuz vs Jaiyq Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 12:00

Ekibastuz

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jaiyq

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-110.7%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.2%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.2%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.5%3-13.4%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 29.1% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 33.2% — — —

Away O1.5 26.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 81%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ekibastuz1.2

Jaiyq1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EKIBASTUZ · PPG 1.25

JAIYQ · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ekibastuz (H) 44.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jaiyq (A) 29.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ekibastuz face Jaiyq in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ekibastuz a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Jaiyq 29%, so Ekibastuz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ekibastuz and 1.0 for Jaiyq (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ekibastuz are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.22 for Jaiyq.

Ekibastuz vs Jaiyq Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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