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Sport Academy Kairat vs Akademiya Ontustik Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 12:00

Sport Academy Kairat

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Akademiya Ontustik

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.29 for Home, form 2.56 vs 1.62 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-11.8%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.6%1-15.3%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.7%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.1%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.9%4+-111.0%4+-23.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.4% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 7.9% — — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 81%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob53.1%

H 75% / xG 2.9-0.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 12.1%

#3 4–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Academy Kairat2.9

Akademiya Ontustik0.6

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT ACADEMY KAIRAT · PPG 2.56

AKADEMIYA ONTUSTIK · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.29 for Home, form 2.56 vs 1.62 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sport Academy Kairat (H) 75.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Akademiya Ontustik (A) 7.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Academy Kairat face Akademiya Ontustik in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Academy Kairat a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Akademiya Ontustik 8%, so Sport Academy Kairat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Sport Academy Kairat and 0.6 for Akademiya Ontustik (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Academy Kairat are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 1.62 for Akademiya Ontustik.

Sport Academy Kairat vs Akademiya Ontustik Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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