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Astana II vs Tobol 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Thursday, August 13, 2026, 14:00

Astana II

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tobol 2

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.10 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.7%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-05.2%1-15.2%1-22.6%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.0%2-18.0%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.2%3-24.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-013.9%4+-113.8%4+-26.8%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.0% — — —

Draw 17.6% — — —

Away win 9.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 27.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 81%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 73% / xG 3.1-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 2–1 8.0%

#5 4–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astana II3.1

Tobol 21.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTANA II · PPG 2.11

TOBOL 2 · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.10 for Home, form 2.11 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Astana II (H) 73.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tobol 2 (A) 9.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Astana II face Tobol 2 in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Thursday, August 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astana II a 73% chance, the draw 18% and Tobol 2 9%, so Astana II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Astana II and 1.0 for Tobol 2 (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astana II are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.00 for Tobol 2.

Astana II vs Tobol 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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