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Arys vs Tobol 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 12:00

Arys

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tobol 2

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.3%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.7%1-18.7%1-26.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.0%3-16.1%3-24.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.0%4+-23.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 28.8% — — —

Over 2.5 65.2% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 59.5% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 86%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arys2.0

Tobol 21.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARYS · PPG 0.75

TOBOL 2 · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arys (H) 49.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tobol 2 (A) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Arys face Tobol 2 in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arys a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Tobol 2 29%, so Arys are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Arys and 1.5 for Tobol 2 (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arys are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.00 for Tobol 2.

Arys vs Tobol 2 Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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