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Khan Tengri vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:00

Khan Tengri

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arys

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.2%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.6%1-110.2%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.5%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 23.8% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 32.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 81%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Khan Tengri2.0

Arys1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KHAN TENGRI · PPG 1.44

ARYS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Khan Tengri (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Arys (A) 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Khan Tengri face Arys in Kazakhstan - 1. Division on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Khan Tengri a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Arys 24%, so Khan Tengri are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Khan Tengri and 1.1 for Arys (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Khan Tengri are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.50 for Arys.

Khan Tengri vs Arys Prediction— Kazakhstan - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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