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Gaziantep vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Regular Season - 30 ·Monday, April 20, 2026, 17:00

Gaziantep

PPG 1.21 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Kayserispor

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+46.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.6%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-19.5%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.1%3-16.8%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.6%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.9% 45.0% 2.22 +46.3%

Draw 19.9% 29.0% 3.45 -31.3%

Away win 14.2% 32.8% 3.05 -56.7%

Over 2.5 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Over 3.5 33.3% 36.4% 2.75 -8.4%

BTTS 49.6% 63.7% 1.57 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 7.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.6%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 56% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gaziantep2.1

Kayserispor0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 33.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAZIANTEP · PPG 1.21

KAYSERISPOR · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

Gaziantep (H) 65.9%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +46.3%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -31.3%

Kayserispor (A) 14.2%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -56.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gaziantep face Kayserispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Monday, April 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gaziantep a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Kayserispor 14%, so Gaziantep are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Gaziantep and 0.8 for Kayserispor (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gaziantep are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.73 for Kayserispor. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +46.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Gaziantep vs Kayserispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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