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U. de Deportes W vs FBC Melgar W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:30

U. de Deportes W

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

FBC Melgar W

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +5.05 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.43 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.1%1-10.7%1-20.2%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.2%2-11.8%2-20.5%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.0%3-13.5%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-045.6%4+-126.3%4+-27.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.4% — — —

Draw 6.5% — — —

Away win 7.1% — — —

Over 2.5 82.1% — — —

Over 3.5 72.5% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)5.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob53.1%

H 86% / xG 5.6-0.6 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0 9.5%

#2 4–0 8.5%

#3 3–0 6.0%

#4 5–1 5.5%

#5 4–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. de Deportes W5.6

FBC Melgar W0.6

COMBINED 6.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 72.5%

Form & verdict PPG

U. DE DEPORTES W · PPG 3.00

FBC MELGAR W · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +5.05 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

U. de Deportes W (H) 86.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 6.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FBC Melgar W (A) 7.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

U. de Deportes W face FBC Melgar W in Peru - Liga Women on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. de Deportes W a 86% chance, the draw 7% and FBC Melgar W 7%, so U. de Deportes W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.6 for U. de Deportes W and 0.6 for FBC Melgar W (6.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. de Deportes W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.43 for FBC Melgar W.

U. de Deportes W vs FBC Melgar W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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