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Defensores W vs Sporting Cristal W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 20:15

Defensores W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sporting Cristal W

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-15.6%0-27.2%0-36.1%0-4+7.3%1 1-02.8%1-17.1%1-29.1%1-37.7%1-4+9.1%2 2-01.7%2-14.5%2-25.7%2-34.9%2-4+5.7%3 3-00.7%3-11.9%3-22.4%3-32.0%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 56.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.8% — — —

Away O1.5 65.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.4%

A 57% / xG 1.3-2.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.1%

#2 1–1 7.1%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 0–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores W1.3

Sporting Cristal W2.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES W · PPG 1.50

SPORTING CRISTAL W · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.30 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Defensores W (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sporting Cristal W (A) 56.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores W face Sporting Cristal W in Peru - Liga Women on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores W a 23% chance, the draw 20% and Sporting Cristal W 57%, so Sporting Cristal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Defensores W and 2.6 for Sporting Cristal W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Sporting Cristal W.

Defensores W vs Sporting Cristal W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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