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FBC Melgar W vs Defensores W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 15:00

FBC Melgar W

PPG 1.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Defensores W

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.2%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.3%1-14.2%1-22.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.3%2-17.1%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-18.1%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-016.5%4+-116.1%4+-27.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% — — —

Draw 16.1% — — —

Away win 15.3% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 51.7% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 26.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob61.6%

H 69% / xG 3.4-1.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 4–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FBC Melgar W3.4

Defensores W1.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FBC MELGAR W · PPG 1.17

DEFENSORES W · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.41 for Home, form 1.17 vs 0.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

FBC Melgar W (H) 68.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensores W (A) 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FBC Melgar W face Defensores W in Peru - Liga Women on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FBC Melgar W a 69% chance, the draw 16% and Defensores W 15%, so FBC Melgar W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for FBC Melgar W and 1.0 for Defensores W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FBC Melgar W are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.20 for Defensores W.

FBC Melgar W vs Defensores W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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