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Defensores W vs Yanapuma W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 20:00

Defensores W

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Yanapuma W

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 1.29 vs 0.14 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-11.6%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-03.5%1-15.0%1-23.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.4%2-17.6%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.5%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-112.5%4+-28.8%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 71.6% — — —

Over 3.5 51.7% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 4–1 5.9%

#4 1–1 5.0%

#5 3–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores W3.0

Yanapuma W1.4

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.6% · O3.5 PROB 51.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES W · PPG 1.29

YANAPUMA W · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 1.29 vs 0.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Defensores W (H) 63.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yanapuma W (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores W face Yanapuma W in Peru - Liga Women on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores W a 64% chance, the draw 16% and Yanapuma W 21%, so Defensores W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Defensores W and 1.4 for Yanapuma W (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores W are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 0.14 for Yanapuma W.

Defensores W vs Yanapuma W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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