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Sporting Cristal W vs U. de Deportes W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:15

Sporting Cristal W

PPG 2.78 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

U. de Deportes W

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.0%0-23.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.2%1-17.9%1-27.4%1-34.7%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.1%2-17.7%2-27.3%2-34.6%2-4+3.3%3 3-02.7%3-15.1%3-24.8%3-33.0%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-13.9%4+-23.7%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 31.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 54.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob64.3%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 7.7%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Cristal W2.0

U. de Deportes W1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CRISTAL W · PPG 2.78

U. DE DEPORTES W · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Cristal W (H) 46.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

U. de Deportes W (A) 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Cristal W face U. de Deportes W in Peru - Liga Women on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Cristal W a 47% chance, the draw 21% and U. de Deportes W 32%, so Sporting Cristal W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sporting Cristal W and 1.9 for U. de Deportes W (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Cristal W are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 1.88 for U. de Deportes W. This match finished 1-3.

Sporting Cristal W vs U. de Deportes W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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