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Flamengo FBC W vs Alianza Lima W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Thursday, August 6, 2026, 18:00

Flamengo FBC W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Lima W

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-19.3%0-27.2%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.5%1-111.7%1-29.1%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.7%2-17.4%2-25.8%2-33.0%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.0%3-13.1%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 24.0% — — —

Away win 40.8% — — —

Over 2.5 54.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.5% — — —

BTTS 59.3% — — —

Home O1.5 36.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 13%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.3%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.0%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo FBC W1.3

Alianza Lima W1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO FBC W · PPG 1.67

ALIANZA LIMA W · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo FBC W (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza Lima W (A) 40.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo FBC W face Alianza Lima W in Peru - Liga Women on Thursday, August 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo FBC W a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Alianza Lima W 41%, so Alianza Lima W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Flamengo FBC W and 1.6 for Alianza Lima W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo FBC W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.57 for Alianza Lima W.

Flamengo FBC W vs Alianza Lima W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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