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Alianza Lima W vs Yanapuma W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Alianza Lima W

PPG 2.57 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Yanapuma W

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +4.38 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-02.3%1-11.1%1-20.3%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-05.7%2-12.7%2-20.6%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.2%3-14.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-044.4%4+-121.2%4+-25.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 84.9% — — —

Draw 8.9% — — —

Away win 6.2% — — —

Over 2.5 74.4% — — —

Over 3.5 54.5% — — —

BTTS 45.8% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)4.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.8%

H 85% / xG 4.9-0.5 / O2.5 74% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 11.2%

#2 5–0 10.9%

#3 3–0 9.2%

#4 2–0✓ 5.7%

#5 4–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Lima W4.9

Yanapuma W0.5

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA LIMA W · PPG 2.57

YANAPUMA W · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +4.38 for Home, form 2.57 vs 0.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Lima W (H) 84.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 8.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Yanapuma W (A) 6.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Lima W face Yanapuma W in Peru - Liga Women on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Lima W a 85% chance, the draw 9% and Yanapuma W 6%, so Alianza Lima W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.9 for Alianza Lima W and 0.5 for Yanapuma W (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Lima W are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.17 for Yanapuma W. This match finished 2-0.

Alianza Lima W vs Yanapuma W Prediction— Peru - Liga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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