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Bahia W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:30

Bahia W

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Corinthians W

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.8%0-25.2%0-33.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.2%1-19.4%1-28.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.3%2-17.7%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.3%3-14.2%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.5%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.9% 18.2% 5.50 +119.4%

Draw 23.7% 26.7% 3.75 -6.7%

Away win 36.4% 64.5% 1.55 -43.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 57.1% 1.75 +10.4%

Over 3.5 39.4% 35.7% 2.80 +10.3%

BTTS 61.6% 57.8% 1.73 +6.6%

Home O1.5 47.2% 27.8% 3.60 +69.9%

Away O1.5 47.7% 62.5% 1.60 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.6%

A 36% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia W1.6

Corinthians W1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA W · PPG 2.11

CORINTHIANS W · PPG 2.14

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bahia W (H) 39.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +119.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.7%

Corinthians W (A) 36.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -43.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia W face Corinthians W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia W a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Corinthians W 36%, so Bahia W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bahia W and 1.8 for Corinthians W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia W are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 2.14 for Corinthians W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +76.1%.

Bahia W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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