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Gremio W vs Cruzeiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 15 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Gremio W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Cruzeiro W

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.9%0-25.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.0%1-112.5%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-18.8%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.6%3-14.2%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 33.3% 3.00 +35.3%

Draw 26.8% 30.8% 3.25 -7.7%

Away win 28.1% 46.5% 2.15 -23.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 29.5% 27.8% 3.60 +3.7%

BTTS 54.1% 56.5% 1.77 -4.2%

Home O1.5 45.4% 35.7% 2.80 +27.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 45.5% 2.20 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio W1.4

Cruzeiro W1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 29.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO W · PPG 1.50

CRUZEIRO W · PPG 1.33

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gremio W (H) 45.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +35.3%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.7%

Cruzeiro W (A) 28.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio W face Cruzeiro W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio W a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Cruzeiro W 28%, so Gremio W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Gremio W and 1.1 for Cruzeiro W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Cruzeiro W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +30.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Gremio W vs Cruzeiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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