Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / America Mineiro W vs Flamengo W

America Mineiro W vs Flamengo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 15 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 00:00

America Mineiro W

PPG 0.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo W

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-119.3%0-214.5%0-37.2%0-4+3.8%1 1-07.1%1-110.6%1-28.0%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.0%2-12.9%2-22.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.8% 10.3% 9.75 +32.4%

Draw 26.8% 21.7% 4.60 +14.0%

Away win 57.4% 78.1% 1.28 -26.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 60.6% 1.65 -29.5%

Over 3.5 21.1% 38.5% 2.60 -27.1%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 20.0% 5.00 +51.0%

Away O1.5 47.3% 72.5% 1.38 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob44.6%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 19.3%

#2 0–2 14.5%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America Mineiro W0.6

Flamengo W1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MINEIRO W · PPG 0.43

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.83

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.95 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

America Mineiro W (H) 15.8%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +32.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +14.0%

Flamengo W (A) 57.4%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -26.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

America Mineiro W face Flamengo W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America Mineiro W a 16% chance, the draw 27% and Flamengo W 57%, so Flamengo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for America Mineiro W and 1.5 for Flamengo W (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America Mineiro W are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 1.83 for Flamengo W. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +51.0%.

America Mineiro W vs Flamengo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Brasileiro Women Predictions