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Fluminense W vs America Mineiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Fluminense W

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

America Mineiro W

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-13.8%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.1%1-17.9%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-15.9%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-15.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 76.9% 1.30 -16.3%

Draw 20.8% 22.2% 4.50 -3.8%

Away win 14.8% 10.4% 9.60 +25.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 57.1% 1.75 -6.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 35.1% 2.85 -9.4%

BTTS 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Home O1.5 59.8% 69.4% 1.44 -13.9%

Away O1.5 16.7% 18.2% 5.50 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense W2.1

America Mineiro W0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE W · PPG 1.57

AMERICA MINEIRO W · PPG 0.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.59 for Home, form 1.57 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense W (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -16.3%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -3.8%

America Mineiro W (A) 14.8%

ODDS 9.60 · IMPLIED 10.4% EV +25.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense W face America Mineiro W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense W a 64% chance, the draw 21% and America Mineiro W 15%, so Fluminense W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Fluminense W and 0.5 for America Mineiro W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.43 for America Mineiro W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.2%.

Fluminense W vs America Mineiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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