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Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Anzoátegui FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:00

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Anzoátegui FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.5%0-23.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.7%1-110.4%1-26.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.1%3-16.1%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.4%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Draw 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

Away win 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Over 2.5 59.5% 51.3% 1.95 +16.0%

Over 3.5 36.5% 29.4% 3.40 +24.1%

BTTS 61.1% 58.8% 1.70 +3.9%

Home O1.5 54.6% 46.5% 2.15 +17.4%

Away O1.5 35.4% 36.4% 2.75 -2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.1%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantes de Merida FC1.9

Anzoátegui FC1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 1.60

ANZOÁTEGUI FC · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantes de Merida FC (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.7%

Anzoátegui FC (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantes de Merida FC face Anzoátegui FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantes de Merida FC a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Anzoátegui FC 28%, so Estudiantes de Merida FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Estudiantes de Merida FC and 1.2 for Anzoátegui FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantes de Merida FC are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.25 for Anzoátegui FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.4%.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs Anzoátegui FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions