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UCV vs Caracas FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:30

UCV

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caracas FC

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-15.4%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.4%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.3%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 47.6% 2.10 +12.8%

Draw 23.0% 31.3% 3.20 -15.8%

Away win 23.3% 31.3% 3.20 -15.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 54.6% 1.83 +8.9%

Over 3.5 36.5% 32.3% 3.10 +13.2%

BTTS 54.5% 60.6% 1.65 -10.1%

Home O1.5 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Away O1.5 31.3% 38.2% 2.62 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV1.9

Caracas FC1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV · PPG 1.80

CARACAS FC · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UCV (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +12.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.8%

Caracas FC (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV face Caracas FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Caracas FC 23%, so UCV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for UCV and 1.0 for Caracas FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.71 for Caracas FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.1%.

UCV vs Caracas FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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