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Rayo Zuliano vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 19:30

Rayo Zuliano

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Estudiantes de Merida FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-110.4%0-27.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.1%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.6%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 37.0% 2.70 -1.7%

Draw 27.7% 33.3% 3.00 -10.1%

Away win 35.8% 40.0% 2.50 -10.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 29.2% 27.0% 3.70 +4.8%

BTTS 53.6% 56.5% 1.77 -5.1%

Home O1.5 31.8% 38.5% 2.60 -17.3%

Away O1.5 42.6% 40.8% 2.45 +4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.6%

A 36% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Zuliano1.2

Estudiantes de Merida FC1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO ZULIANO · PPG 1.00

ESTUDIANTES DE MERIDA FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Zuliano (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -1.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.1%

Estudiantes de Merida FC (A) 35.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -10.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Zuliano face Estudiantes de Merida FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Zuliano a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 36%, so Rayo Zuliano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rayo Zuliano and 1.4 for Estudiantes de Merida FC (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Zuliano are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Estudiantes de Merida FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Rayo Zuliano vs Estudiantes de Merida FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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