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Portuguesa FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:00

Portuguesa FC

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trujillanos FC

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+21.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-13.3%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.9%1-17.5%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-18.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-16.6%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.1%4+-16.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.2% 55.6% 1.80 +21.0%

Draw 20.6% 31.3% 3.20 -20.4%

Away win 12.2% 23.1% 4.33 -28.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 45.5% 2.20 +18.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 23.8% 4.20 +33.6%

BTTS 47.7% 51.3% 1.95 -7.0%

Home O1.5 63.0% 47.6% 2.10 +32.3%

Away O1.5 16.7% 25.3% 3.95 -20.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 67% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 3–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 7.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portuguesa FC2.3

Trujillanos FC0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTUGUESA FC · PPG 1.91

TRUJILLANOS FC · PPG 0.14

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.71 for Home, form 1.91 vs 0.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Portuguesa FC (H) 67.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +21.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -20.4%

Trujillanos FC (A) 12.2%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portuguesa FC face Trujillanos FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portuguesa FC a 67% chance, the draw 21% and Trujillanos FC 12%, so Portuguesa FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Portuguesa FC and 0.6 for Trujillanos FC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portuguesa FC are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.14 for Trujillanos FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%.

Portuguesa FC vs Trujillanos FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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