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Puerto Cabello vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 23:30

Puerto Cabello

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rayo Zuliano

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-15.0%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-19.9%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-16.4%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-14.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 69.4% 1.44 -14.5%

Draw 22.0% 25.6% 3.90 -8.5%

Away win 18.6% 13.3% 7.50 +23.7%

Over 2.5 54.9% 51.3% 1.95 +7.1%

Over 3.5 32.6% 28.6% 3.50 +14.1%

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 54.6% 63.3% 1.58 -13.7%

Away O1.5 21.1% 21.3% 4.70 -0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 59% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 9.9%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puerto Cabello2.0

Rayo Zuliano0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 2.00

RAYO ZULIANO · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Puerto Cabello (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -14.5%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.5%

Rayo Zuliano (A) 18.6%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +23.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puerto Cabello face Rayo Zuliano in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puerto Cabello a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Rayo Zuliano 19%, so Puerto Cabello are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Puerto Cabello and 0.8 for Rayo Zuliano (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puerto Cabello are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Rayo Zuliano. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +41.7%.

Puerto Cabello vs Rayo Zuliano Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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