Today / Venezuela - Primera División / Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira

Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 10, 2026, 22:30

Caracas FC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo La Guaira

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.2%0-114.4%0-28.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.2%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-05.2%2-16.1%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.0% 33.3% 3.00 -7.0%

Draw 27.5% 33.3% 3.00 -10.5%

Away win 41.6% 43.5% 2.30 -4.3%

Over 2.5 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Over 3.5 28.0% 23.1% 4.33 +12.7%

BTTS 49.7% 51.8% 1.93 -4.1%

Home O1.5 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Away O1.5 35.1% 39.2% 2.55 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 58%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.7%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 12.2%

#3 0–1 14.4%

#4 1–0 11.2%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caracas FC0.9

Deportivo La Guaira1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CARACAS FC · PPG 1.38

DEPORTIVO LA GUAIRA · PPG 2.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.27, combined xG 2.10 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caracas FC (H) 31.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.0%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.5%

Deportivo La Guaira (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caracas FC face Deportivo La Guaira in Venezuela - Primera División on Monday, August 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caracas FC a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Deportivo La Guaira 42%, so Deportivo La Guaira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Caracas FC and 1.2 for Deportivo La Guaira (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caracas FC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.09 for Deportivo La Guaira. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.7%.

Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Venezuela - Primera División Predictions