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Metropolitanos FC vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 22:30

Metropolitanos FC

PPG 1.91 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

UCV

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.1%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.2%1-110.9%1-25.8%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.9%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-14.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.3% 46.5% 2.15 +8.2%

Draw 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -13.9%

Away win 24.9% 31.3% 3.20 -12.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Over 3.5 32.5% 26.7% 3.75 +21.9%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 49.2% 44.4% 2.25 +10.7%

Away O1.5 35.2% 33.9% 2.95 +3.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitanos FC1.8

UCV1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANOS FC · PPG 1.91

UCV · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitanos FC (H) 50.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.9%

UCV (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitanos FC face UCV in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitanos FC a 50% chance, the draw 25% and UCV 25%, so Metropolitanos FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Metropolitanos FC and 1.1 for UCV (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitanos FC are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 1.27 for UCV. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +56.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Metropolitanos FC vs UCV Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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