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Zamora FC vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

Zamora FC

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Puerto Cabello

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-19.7%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.1%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 34.5% 2.90 +38.0%

Draw 26.9% 33.9% 2.95 -12.4%

Away win 25.5% 41.7% 2.40 -23.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 40.0% 2.50 +25.8%

Over 3.5 28.8% 20.0% 5.00 +26.4%

BTTS 52.6% 48.8% 2.05 +7.8%

Home O1.5 37.4% 30.8% 3.25 +21.6%

Away O1.5 24.9% 35.7% 2.80 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 14.1%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zamora FC1.3

Puerto Cabello0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAMORA FC · PPG 1.71

PUERTO CABELLO · PPG 0.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.41, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zamora FC (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +38.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -12.4%

Puerto Cabello (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zamora FC face Puerto Cabello in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zamora FC a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Puerto Cabello 26%, so Zamora FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zamora FC and 0.9 for Puerto Cabello (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zamora FC are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.83 for Puerto Cabello. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Zamora FC vs Puerto Cabello Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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