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Monagas SC vs Carabobo FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 20:00

Monagas SC

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Carabobo FC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.6%0-27.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.1%1-111.6%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.3%2-17.0%2-25.7%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 28.2% 3.55 +11.5%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 43.6% 50.0% 2.00 -12.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 47.6% 2.10 +12.3%

Over 3.5 33.0% 26.0% 3.85 +27.1%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 34.0% 30.3% 3.30 +12.2%

Away O1.5 48.2% 46.5% 2.15 +3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 37%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -9.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monagas SC1.2

Carabobo FC1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MONAGAS SC · PPG 1.38

CARABOBO FC · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monagas SC (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +11.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Carabobo FC (A) 43.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monagas SC face Carabobo FC in Venezuela - Primera División on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monagas SC a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Carabobo FC 44%, so Carabobo FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Monagas SC and 1.6 for Carabobo FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monagas SC are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Carabobo FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Monagas SC vs Carabobo FC Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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