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Cobán Imperial vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Cobán Imperial

PPG 1.77 · HOME

UPCOMING

Mixco

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-18.5%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-112.2%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-18.7%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.5%3-14.1%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 26.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI 52.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.2%

#3 0–0 11.2%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobán Imperial1.4

Mixco0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COBÁN IMPERIAL · PPG 1.77

MIXCO · PPG 0.98

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cobán Imperial (H) 51.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mixco (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobán Imperial face Mixco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobán Imperial a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Mixco 22%, so Cobán Imperial are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cobán Imperial and 0.8 for Mixco (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobán Imperial are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.98 for Mixco.

Cobán Imperial vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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