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Atletico Mitre vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Mitre

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Atlético Güemes

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.7%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.4%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-17.2%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-16.9%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 54.6% 1.83 +18.2%

Draw 20.8% 33.3% 3.00 -22.6%

Away win 14.6% 21.7% 4.60 -19.7%

Over 2.5 57.3% 40.0% 2.50 +43.3%

Over 3.5 35.7% 20.0% 5.00 +78.5%

BTTS 49.2% 46.5% 2.15 +5.8%

Home O1.5 63.0% 45.5% 2.20 +38.6%

Away O1.5 17.6% 22.2% 4.50 -12.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Mitre2.3

Club Atlético Güemes0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 35.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MITRE · PPG 1.50

CLUB ATLÉTICO GÜEMES · PPG 0.45

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Mitre (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +18.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -22.6%

Club Atlético Güemes (A) 14.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Mitre face Club Atlético Güemes in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Mitre a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Club Atlético Güemes 15%, so Atletico Mitre are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Atletico Mitre and 0.8 for Club Atlético Güemes (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Mitre are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.45 for Club Atlético Güemes. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +78.5%.

Atletico Mitre vs Club Atlético Güemes Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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