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Colon Santa Fe vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 19:30

Colon Santa Fe

PPG 2.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Patronato

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-16.4%0-21.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.1%1-19.7%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.9%2-17.3%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.0%3-13.7%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 60.6% 1.65 -3.8%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 16.2% 17.9% 5.60 -5.6%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

Over 3.5 21.1% 18.2% 5.50 +9.6%

BTTS 44.6% 41.7% 2.40 +7.0%

Home O1.5 45.1% 47.6% 2.10 -5.3%

Away O1.5 15.7% 18.2% 5.50 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 58% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.1%

#2 2–0 15.9%

#3 0–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colon Santa Fe1.5

Patronato0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLON SANTA FE · PPG 2.08

PATRONATO · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Colon Santa Fe (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -3.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Patronato (A) 16.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colon Santa Fe face Patronato in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colon Santa Fe a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Patronato 16%, so Colon Santa Fe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Colon Santa Fe and 0.5 for Patronato (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colon Santa Fe are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.83 for Patronato. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.0%.

Colon Santa Fe vs Patronato Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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