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Quilmes vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:00

Quilmes

PPG 1.83 · HOME

UPCOMING

San Telmo

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-18.1%0-22.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.8%1-110.6%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-16.9%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.1%3-13.0%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 63.7% 1.57 -18.2%

Draw 26.7% 30.3% 3.30 -7.1%

Away win 21.3% 15.6% 6.40 +21.8%

Over 2.5 36.7% 43.5% 2.30 -15.6%

Over 3.5 17.8% 23.8% 4.20 -15.1%

BTTS 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

Home O1.5 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Away O1.5 16.7% 19.0% 5.25 -7.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 52% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.8%

#2 0–0 16.8%

#3 2–0 14.2%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.3

San Telmo0.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 1.83

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.55

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -18.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.1%

San Telmo (A) 21.3%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 52% chance, the draw 27% and San Telmo 21%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Quilmes and 0.5 for San Telmo (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.55 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.9%.

Quilmes vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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