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Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Ferro Carril Oeste

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atlanta

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+27.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-18.6%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.4%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.0%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.0%3-14.3%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 54.6% 1.83 -7.2%

Draw 25.6% 35.1% 2.85 -16.2%

Away win 23.7% 20.8% 4.80 +8.3%

Over 2.5 49.9% 34.5% 2.90 +44.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 15.4% 6.50 +51.9%

BTTS 53.1% 41.7% 2.40 +27.4%

Home O1.5 45.1% 40.8% 2.45 +10.5%

Away O1.5 22.8% 19.0% 5.25 +11.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 0–0 9.9%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferro Carril Oeste1.4

Atlanta0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERRO CARRIL OESTE · PPG 1.73

ATLANTA · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferro Carril Oeste (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -7.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.2%

Atlanta (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferro Carril Oeste face Atlanta in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferro Carril Oeste a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Atlanta 24%, so Ferro Carril Oeste are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.9 for Atlanta (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferro Carril Oeste are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.30 for Atlanta. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +52.3%.

Ferro Carril Oeste vs Atlanta Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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