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CA Estudiantes vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 22:00

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chacarita Juniors

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-19.3%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.6%1-111.1%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-16.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.2%3-12.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 54.6% 1.83 -8.9%

Draw 28.9% 35.1% 2.85 -10.6%

Away win 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +3.9%

Over 2.5 34.2% 31.3% 3.20 +9.4%

Over 3.5 17.7% 14.3% 7.00 +14.3%

BTTS 44.6% 37.7% 2.65 +18.2%

Home O1.5 31.7% 39.2% 2.55 -19.2%

Away O1.5 16.7% 16.7% 6.00 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.6%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.6%

#2 0–0 18.0%

#3 2–0 13.0%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes1.2

Chacarita Juniors0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.33

CHACARITA JUNIORS · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -8.9%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.6%

Chacarita Juniors (A) 21.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face Chacarita Juniors in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Chacarita Juniors 21%, so CA Estudiantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CA Estudiantes and 0.5 for Chacarita Juniors (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Chacarita Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +18.2%.

CA Estudiantes vs Chacarita Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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