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San Miguel vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

San Miguel

PPG 1.45 · HOME

UPCOMING

Colegiales

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-111.3%0-23.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.3%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.7%2-16.7%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 34.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.6%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–0 19.5%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 11.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Miguel1.1

Colegiales0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MIGUEL · PPG 1.45

COLEGIALES · PPG 0.45

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.72 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Miguel (H) 45.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Colegiales (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

San Miguel face Colegiales in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Miguel a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Colegiales 22%, so San Miguel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for San Miguel and 0.6 for Colegiales (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Miguel are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.45 for Colegiales.

San Miguel vs Colegiales Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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