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Godoy Cruz vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 21:00

Godoy Cruz

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Maipu

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.0%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-110.8%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.6%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.7%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 58.8% 1.70 -7.3%

Draw 23.6% 32.3% 3.10 -16.1%

Away win 21.9% 19.6% 5.10 +7.0%

Over 2.5 51.1% 41.7% 2.40 +22.6%

Over 3.5 30.0% 22.2% 4.50 +35.0%

BTTS 53.1% 46.5% 2.15 +14.2%

Home O1.5 49.2% 48.8% 2.05 +0.9%

Away O1.5 21.1% 21.1% 4.75 +0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Godoy Cruz1.8

Deportivo Maipu0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GODOY CRUZ · PPG 2.33

DEPORTIVO MAIPU · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Godoy Cruz (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -7.3%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.1%

Deportivo Maipu (A) 21.9%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Godoy Cruz face Deportivo Maipu in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Godoy Cruz a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Maipu 22%, so Godoy Cruz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Godoy Cruz and 0.8 for Deportivo Maipu (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Godoy Cruz are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Deportivo Maipu. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.0%.

Godoy Cruz vs Deportivo Maipu Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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