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Deportivo Moron vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Moron

PPG 2.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Almagro

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-13.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.6%1-17.4%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.7%2-18.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-16.7%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.4%4+-16.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 60.6% 1.65 +11.9%

Draw 18.1% 31.3% 3.20 -25.3%

Away win 14.1% 17.9% 5.60 -12.6%

Over 2.5 59.5% 37.0% 2.70 +60.7%

Over 3.5 36.5% 20.0% 5.00 +82.5%

BTTS 49.2% 40.8% 2.45 +20.5%

Home O1.5 63.0% 46.5% 2.15 +35.4%

Away O1.5 16.7% 17.4% 5.75 -2.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 233 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 64%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.7%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 3–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Moron2.3

Almagro0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MORON · PPG 2.50

ALMAGRO · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.74 for Home, form 2.50 vs 0.83 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Moron (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +11.9%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -25.3%

Almagro (A) 14.1%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Moron face Almagro in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Moron a 68% chance, the draw 18% and Almagro 14%, so Deportivo Moron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Deportivo Moron and 0.6 for Almagro (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Moron are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.83 for Almagro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +82.5%.

Deportivo Moron vs Almagro Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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