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Juventud de Bernal vs SAT Moreno Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Matchday 11 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:30

Juventud de Bernal

PPG 0.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

SAT Moreno

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -2.39 for Away, form 0.20 vs 1.80

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-111.5%0-216.0%0-314.9%0-4+20.5%1 1-01.6%1-14.6%1-26.4%1-36.0%1-4+8.2%2 2-00.3%2-10.9%2-21.3%2-31.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.7% — — —

Draw 16.2% — — —

Away win 71.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 28.6% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob44.6%

A 71% / xG 0.4-2.8 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 16.0%

#2 0–3 14.9%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 0–4 10.4%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud de Bernal0.4

SAT Moreno2.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD DE BERNAL · PPG 0.20

SAT MORENO · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -2.39 for Away, form 0.20 vs 1.80

Win probability 1X2

Juventud de Bernal (H) 12.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SAT Moreno (A) 71.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud de Bernal face SAT Moreno in Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud de Bernal a 13% chance, the draw 16% and SAT Moreno 71%, so SAT Moreno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Juventud de Bernal and 2.8 for SAT Moreno (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud de Bernal are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 1.80 for SAT Moreno.

Juventud de Bernal vs SAT Moreno Prediction— Argentina - Torneo Promocional Amateur

Match Preview & Prediction

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